Countdown to U.S.-Iran Talks and Shipping Blockade Risks Keep Tin Prices Fluctuating at Highs on Low Inventory Support [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

Tin Midday Commentary on March 31, 2026

Price Snapshot

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2605) closed at 366,700 yuan/mt, up 2,130 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, or 0.58%.

Macro Sentiment: US-Iran Talks Intertwined With Military Threats, Shipping Risk Premiums Remained Elevated

The core contradiction in current macro sentiment remained centered on the Middle East's "fighting while talking" pattern. On one hand, signs of partial easing and negotiations emerged: the White House said Trump hoped to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6, which was also the deadline he set for postponing airstrikes on Iran's energy facilities. On the other hand, tensions were still escalating, with military threats and substantive blockades coexisting. Trump again threatened that if talks collapsed, he would "completely destroy" all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and the key oil hub of Kharg Island. Meanwhile, Iran's parliament had approved a bill to levy transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and planned to ban US and Israeli ships from transiting. The Houthis formally entered the conflict, raising market concerns that the scope of the conflict could expand to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. With two of the world's major energy trade chokepoints coming under pressure at the same time, systemic risks rose significantly. Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals, suggesting a tendency to look through short-term supply shocks caused by the war. This provided some reassurance to the market, but failed to fully offset the panic triggered by geopolitical risks.

Spot Market: High Prices Suppressed Transactions, While Low Inventory and High Spot Premiums Persisted

Amid the continued rise in futures, actual spot market transactions were weak today, with the feature of "prices quoted but little trading" standing out. Faced with absolutely high prices and elevated spot premiums, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness was significantly restrained. Most mainly consumed existing inventory to maintain rigid production needs, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. However, the market's core support lay in extremely low global visible inventory.

Comprehensive Outlook

Overall, tin prices' strength today resulted from the combined effects of the "stagflation trade" logic triggered by geopolitical risks, the rigid support from historically low inventoryand long-term expectations for "new-quality demand" such as AI servers and PV welding strip. In the short term, developments in the Middle East situation, especially progress around the April 6 US-Iran negotiation deadline, will remain the key variable dominating futures sentiment. Against the backdrop of unclear shipping prospects in the Strait of Hormuz and looming military threats, market risk appetite is highly prone to repeated swings. Tin prices are expected to maintain a high-level pattern of wide swings overall, supported by low inventory, and the round-number level of 370,000 yuan/mt will become the core focus of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Going forward, close attention should be paid to substantive progress in the geopolitical situation, downstream's actual capacity to absorb demand under high prices, and the pace of social inventory drawdown.